Has COVID led to an increase in all-cause mortality? The figure below shows mortality data in the US for the 2015-2020 period. At the top chart are the absolute numbers of deaths per 1000 people. At the bottom are the annual change percentages, how much the absolute numbers have been changing from the previous years.
As you can see at the top chart the absolute numbers of deaths per 1000 people have been going up steadily, since 2015, at a rate of around 10 percent per year. This is due primarily to population ageing, which has been increasing in a very similar fashion. Since life expectancy has been generally stable in the US for the 2015-2020 period (), an increase in the number of deaths is to be expected due to population ageing.
What I mean by population ageing is an increase in the average age of the population due to an increase in the proportion of older individuals (e.g., aged 65 or more) in the population. In any population where there are no immortals, this population ageing phenomenon is normally expected to cause a higher number of deaths per 1000 people.
Now look at the bottom chart in the figure. It shows no increase in the rate of change from 2019 to 2020. This is not what you would expect if COVID had led to an increase in all-cause mortality in 2020. In fact, based on media reports, one would expect to see a visible spike in the rate of change for 2020. If these numbers are correct, we have to conclude that COVID has NOT led to an increase in all-cause mortality.
